Forex Secrets – Delusion No 2 – Who Prompts Forex Quotation to Traders

The delusion conceptually propounds that traders operate at a spontaneous FOREX market (as stipulated by B. Williams, A. Elder, E. Nayman, etc. ). But it is not the case. Traders do their job inside a well-organized and controlled currency exchange market, governed by the Consortium of the world’s largest banks.

Hence, who is pushing the currencies up and down, who defines trends, corrective actions and flats?

And, who, ultimately, places a trend at a point, where the majority of traders are happy to think they have saddled the wave and are about to win an enormous profit! Now! Not to be scared! Not to close the position! Not to be satisfied with a minor profit! Later on we will discuss that sort of stupidity. Thus, one persists to continue long in spite of more and more degrading profit. Shortly, the loss starts growing with light velocity! Are you familiar with the situation?

Well, who has reversed the rate?

And who generally tugs currency rates?

Tugging is surely centralized. Compare on-line quotes of several Dealers or banks to find out that they are per second coincident. Do each bank’s traders act in such synchronism, that even not seeing each other, they place identical orders so that quotation is in 100% agreement? NOTHING IS A MIRACLE HERE!

But prior to further explanation, we will listen to Bill Williams, the FOREX scholar (Trading Chaos, Ch. 6): “…let us trace a trend formation process. Earlier, the market and the market trading venue did constitute a single physical space. Majority of large grain traders were concentrated on the “floor”. Their orders involved amounts, sufficient to move the market; they enjoyed better control over the market than at present. During the latest 20 years markets have grown worldwide. Now, not only “Purina Ralstone”, “Kellog” and other prominent commercial associations seek hedging their cash assets transactions. So do millions of the world’s minor profiteers and farmers, competing with them in anticipation of perspective grain price fluctuations? This fact also implies strong potential for traders with nowadays, trends not being constructed on the floor. The latter mainly ensures the market liquidity by way of tackling “outer orders”.

The fact, that today’s trends are formed rather “outside the floor” than “on the floor”, as before, enables one to trace further market tendencies with trade volume being the key thereto. Our only on-line information is restricted to tick volume, time and price. Tick volume constitutes a number of price changes per a certain time period. It is not at all a number of traded contracts. Multiple researches revealed no significant difference between actual and tick volume. Using a tick volume, we may suppose, that it represents actual volume. It is a real-time volume, thus being our key to what’s going on in “trading pits”.

Two basic elements are organic to FOREX trading: brokers on the floor and remote traders. Local brokers constitute staff, executing orders, thus earning their salaries and/or commissions. They don’t possess money to be at their disposal. They are order executors. Their prospects are not burdened by prices, they getting for the orders management.

Remote traders use their own money. They have to pay the price out of their own pockets, unless they are getting a good one. Traders have to be much superior in skill to brokers since they independently take their own decisions, while the broker’s job is to follow the others’ orders.

Remote traders are supposed to support the market by way of taking its opposite side. As a rule, they are not at all crazy about any long-term transactions. Quite a few remote traders have been participants to our private training programs, and it is to be admitted that a 10-minute long transaction may seem quite a long-term one for some of them.

Think back to the fact that trends are built up of orders, delivered to the floor from outside, but not of long-term positions entered by remote traders. Since the traders’ job is to take the side opposite to the orders arriving from outside, they have no prospects of trading in between themselves. They follow your money. We are emphasizing again, that tick volume is our key to understanding what’s going on in the Forex Market. Remote traders do not contribute any significant volume to trading, which might result from dealing with similar traders on the floor. Trends emerge from incoming orders. That is why we are to be certain about when and in what amount the outer order is supplied to the floor. It is presented via a tick volume change”.

So, we, traders, turn out to be price locomotives, don’t we? And brokers on the floor just allocate and execute order, incoming from us, don’t they? And on April, 1, 2005 they all (meaning: we all) together decided to swivel the trend and to stay short against all the rules, news and common sense… I wonder if the scholar ashamed or not?

As regards the above quotation, I have chanced to hear a single argument in favor of Bill Williams (I guess you understood for what sake I’ve cited it in detail): it all pertains to the futures markets; we neither read nor use the above at Forex. Strange enough, these are the arguments of Williams’s advocates, but not of Williams himself.

This book is actually intended for both: futures markets and Forex Market. That’s why pictures taken from both the markets are so mixed up and the author never differentiates between the Technical Analysis methods thereof. Thus, either the author does not trace any difference between the two markets, or he is not eager to reveal it to the reader.

And neither in the foreword, nor in the remarks did Williams and his publishers refer to the fact that something of “Trading Chaos” is inapplicable to FOREX, and thus should not be made use of by a trader at FOREX.

I have repeatedly come through this peculiarity of Williams (correct specific case method definition being extended to a wider coordinates scale) and it actually induced me to write this book. In all and all, the methods and advice, absolutely true and correct for a PART of Forex Market are claimed by Williams to be universal for the WHOLE of Forex Market without being demonstrated where the above is effective and where it isn’t.

The same is being done by Williams’s opponents and advocates, who visualize the portion of Forex where his methods are operable only. As different from analysts and Williams’s bibliographers, TRADERS require much stronger to realize a demarcation with pro-Williams trading to the one side thereof and with counter-Williams trading to the other one.

Logically there comes a question: what might be added to Williams’s indicators in order to turn them effective at the point where they are presently ineffective (see details in chapter on the Williams Alligator).

And now we are getting back to the issue of who supplies traders with FOREX rates quotation, bearing in mind that it’s us, traders, who exercise rates movement in accordance with Williams’s standpoint. Millions of traders have actually been studying FOREX by virtue of the “Trading House” and it is really worth studying. This is one of the most interesting and instructive editions whose repeated reading each time brings about something new and useful.

However, in some passages it smells being custom tailored. Is Williams ignorant of the fact that there is no single FOREX exchange and there’s no single trading venue or floor? And that Pacific, Asian, European and American session classification is arbitrary?

Did You see currency rates move, while there’s a day off in the USA with the banks closed? So did I. So, who has made up his mind in the USA to trade on the floor on a day off?

Then, who prompts rates, who formulates trends and turns them with no objective reason for the rate to swivel and to rush in a direction, not being requisite at all?

Here is the answer, as provided by No. 11, 2002 “FOREX Profiteer” magazine’s article by Nadezhda Larina “Electronic Broker Systems at FOREX market”, http://www. ifin. ru/publications/read/351. stm), reading: ”… an FOREX dealing “Electronic Broking Service (EBS)” enjoys wide popularity with the extra-exchange inter-bank FOREX market. It has been developed by the Consortium of largest FOREX trading participant banks in association with “Quotron” informatics expert company and launched in 1993. Presently EBS incorporates 13 world’s largest market-maker banks, viz,: BN AMRO Bank, Bank of America, Barclays Capital, Citibank, Commerzbank, Credit Suisse First Boston, HSBC Bank PLC, J. P. Morgan Chase and Co. Lehman Brothers, Royal Bank of Scotland, S-E Banken, UBS AG along with Japanese Minex Corp. , established by a Consortium of Japanese Banks in a joint manner with KDD Japanese telecommunications company and Dow Jones Telerate.

EBS offers a completely integrated range of dealing services for the professional inter-bank market, being a leading anonymous inter-bank FOREX trading electronic dealer. It is currently used by over 2500 dealers in 850 world banks and yields a trade turnover of about USD80 billion daily.

See there also: “Three greatest FOREX dealers – Citibank, J. P. Morgan Chase and Deutsche Bank, together with Reuters Group PLC) have started Atriax system in June, 2001. The latter terminated the operations in spring, 2002 after having failed to stand the competition.

Can you imagine a monster machine, capable of forcing three world’s largest banks – Citibank, J. P. Morgan Chase and Deutsche Bank to abandon their business plans! Or capable of reversing the EURUSD from 1. 3660 to 1. 1865 and thus instantaneously executing orders of all the world’s traders, going and standing short! And thus within, April-June, 2005, buying the EUR from traders at USD1. 36, 1. 29, 1. 20, 1. 19, etc.

Do you see the loss? Watching the EUR slip 1700 pts after having bought it at 1. 36… But, possibly, there is no loss at all?

All of Larina’s basic provisions have actually found confirmation 2 years later in the UK “Financial Times” article by Jennifer Hughes: “A PC occupying trading floor” (see it on Financial Times 2004).

It underlines that during the precedent 2 years the Consortiums turnover has grown by extra daily USD20 billion thus currently stretching to USD100 billion, whereas the most prominent internet-based trading platforms ensure the average of USD15-20 billion daily turnover.

So, let’s jump to some conclusions:

1. The FOREX market is not the same as it used to be earlier, say 11 years ago.

2. There is in fact “a price fluctuation relative uniformity”, otherwise, practical quotations similarity with all the world’s brokers and traders.

3. The reason for the above uniformity has been honestly disclosed from technological standpoint, being the “flourish of electronic exchange technologies”.

4. There is no mention of other reasons for similar rates at absolutely different FOREX trading platforms the world over what links together the above platform and FOREX rates at them from financial, organizational, contractual viewpoints, etc).

5. The great interest is the remark from “Financial Times” reiterating the changes at FOREX during the latest years as narrated by an anonymous ex-dealer (?) who compares the FOREX market as of those 11 years ago: “It used to be a hell noisy and a hell splendid!”

In his opinion the market has lost a significant portion of its individuality with rise of technology. A very interesting phrase: “It used to be a hell splendid”. I would add:” It used to be a hell volatile”, with reference to the fact that the daily rates travel went as far 400 to 500 pips. And there’s nothing of the kind now.

6. Now, why has “The Financial Times” only interviewed the EBS Consortium official?

J. Jeffrey and the currency transactions department director, Fabian Shey Why wasn’t it desirous to interview the Reuters representatives (UK)? What’s the reason for such kind of disrespect to the compatriots?

Or were they hard to be contacted in London, where The Financial Times and Reuters HQs are located, moreover after maintaining that presently both, EBS Consortium and Reuters are dominant at the inter-bank market? Or The Financial Times possesses enough information on compatriots from Reuters to hold that the EBS Consortium official’s interview is sufficient without any Reuters?

7. Please, pay attention to the following from The Financial Times: “Anyway, other opinions are available. According to Justin Trenner, the current volume of on-line trading is turnover amounts to USD100 billion daily with the steep growth observed”. The Financial Times thus turns out to recognize its complete inability to trace not only FOREX cash flows, but even the trading volumes at those platforms.

The principal difference between stocks and FOREX is, by the way, readily apparent from the above. Those, writing about similar Fundamental and Technical Analysis methods for both the markets, are either ignorant as to fundamental difference of these markets, or they are deliberately swindling millions of traders.

When pointing out, that, besides the above Banks Consortium, there exist other electronic dealing facilities (e. g. Electronic Broker Service, Reuters Dealing 2000-2, etc. ), N. Larina has overlooked their interrelations aspect. And there are a lot of questions: how and why there is coincidence of trends, corrections, historical highs and lows in the course of a single day, etc.

And what is the way to reconcile the statement on shunt operation of EBS and Reuters Dealing facilities with the information that Citibank, J. P. Morgan Chase and Deutsche Bank together with Reuters Group Plc have failed to stand the competition? Is it attributable to the fact that the Consortium has actually acquired Reuters, maintaining its formal sovereignty in order to support traders’ opinion that FOREX market is free and independent? If affirmative, then it’s fairly clear why the Consortium was not scared to buy the EUR on its dip from 1. 36 to 1. 1860, since there nothing to be afraid of with one’s knowledge of the point, below which one will not drop the rate as well as the point to stage the EUR rally to in several months with no one to interfere with Your so doing.

Hopefully, it’s now understandable who swivels trends at FOREX! The world’s largest banks Consortium does have power to reverse rates, whenever desirous, overthrowing fundamental laws, news releases, trends and common sense, just the way we witnessed on 01. 04. 2005 charts. But it’s not at all, traders, as claimed by Williams.

That’s why there is obvious ineffectiveness of the Williams’s Market Facilitation Index (MFI) based on fluctuations of traded volumes; to be more precise, sometimes the indicator tells the truth, whereas sometimes it lies in a barefaced manner.

The reasons are stated above: the banks Consortium pushes rates to where it needs, but not to where traders going into deals, thus accumulating the volumes, indicated on the screen. That’s why traders turn losers when making use of the Williams’s MFI indicator.

Full text of this article and pictures of examples http://www. masterforex-v. su/

Trading Like A Bank Trader From The Comfort Of Your Home – The Real Secrets Of Forex

Forex trading is not for individuals who are not smart. It is for sophisticated traders who know how to trade the markets. However forex is marketed like it’s the money-tree that everyone was searching for – and all you have to do is sign up to “our brokerage” and suddenly you’ll have “the keys to the kingdom!”
Fat chance! Chances are that if you’re in forex, like 95% of others, you are actually a “loser”. It’s not a nice word to use, but unfortunately, a new “industry” of forex brokers, courses, introducing brokers, mentors, authors and commentators would not have spawned unless there were millions willing to spend money like consumer gamblers trying to make their fortune based on the lies of advertising and marketing.
Therefore, most of the people trading forex as retail investors, despite the fact they may have spent literally tens of thousands on seminars and courses, still don’t have the slightest clue of what they are actually doing or where they are headed with their trading.
The result is that they complain and they moan and they try to find the “holy grail” of forex trading in forex forums, through more books, courses and through spending more money gambling in the forex market. If that is you, here is where it ends.
Forex involves huge amounts of money with contracts and volume that make the US stock market seem like Mickey Mouse. The real winners are the brokers and the banks who have inside information, capital and influence to be able to profit and keep on profitting no matter what direction the market is moving.
A “piece of the action” is just another way of marketing a short-term fix (you being able to trade using a forex brokers platform from your family PC) for your long-term pain (the losses in time, money and energy you will incur from not really knowing what you are doing apart from you want to get rich quick or at least make some money). The truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth about forex continues. . .
You can rest assured that there will be many “versions” of this original article on the internet within weeks if not days. This is because the marketers and those trying to cash in on the forex explosion will plagiarise and do anything they can to get their message out as well – after all, it’s your money that everyone is after.
In forex, a successful forex broker will trade. They made trade against their unwitting clients (to “mop up” capital they can keep for themselves) and also because they are in the position of power and knowledge that we talked about earlier.
Being able to know what trades have been placed on the books puts the forex broker at a huge advantage. Same as with the bank trading floor leaders. A team leader will instruct their team (for example a team trading the EUR) when to buy and sell. Sometimes it will be to take out stop losses of their clients and then get in at the start of moves in the opposite direction, other times it will be following the lead of mor influential players. Either way the forex broker wins. And that is how a lot of people have made money in forex – by being a broker, not limiting themselves to just trading, but sales is a part of the banking system, is it not? After all, diversification is a kind of rule in investment circles too, correct? What makes forex any different?
So the key therefore to successful trading without the capital and “insider knowledge” advantage of the leading forex broker is to be able to understand what the moves are that the forex broker team leaders identify as the entry points for their teams and therefore the market direction effectively. That is not to say that forex broker teams, hedge funds or banks control the market direction as individual entities neccessarily, but it assumes the broker is successful at trading.
Once the way in which the brokerage trades is identified – the strategy is elicited, a whole new doorway is opened up for the retail investor. The forex trading game no longer becomes a game of chance and luck with the odds dramatically against, it is a game of skill with some luck added in to the mix. This is the state of the forex market today.
Further to the “insider information” of how to trade forex like a professional forex fund, having a business plan and being able to action it are of course vital. This means that the person who is the forex trader needs to learn and grow, to be flexible and to be able to think independently.

Learning for Earning: Get the Secrets of Forex Training Program

For a trader, forex is perhaps the best place to start a trading career. And why not? Forex with all its flexibilities has proved to be the largest trading market in the world having an average daily trade of US$ 2 trillion and above. A trader with a lust for trading can strike gold in forex. But forex trading is not only about playing cards and waiting for what you are destined for. A lot of things from your part decide your success in forex trading. And to gain that success its better to have forex training before you land on the currency market.

As far as the topic of forex training is concerned, you have many masters at your disposal. But few of them are according to the context. Now being new to the forex and World Wide Web, you may find yourself confused enough to find out a suitable forex training program. In such a case, you can consider the following:

Select a forex training program which addresses the forex trading basics from root. Basics are good to make your stance strong. Review the basic concepts like margin, rollover, order types, bidding etc. Having a sound understanding about the fundamentals of forex can help you to manage all your deeds at ease.

Except basics, you should also be aware of the mistakes which are very often made by forex traders while trading in forex. A good forex training course should give its students an insight into all possible or probable mistakes of trading in forex. Once you know how to stop committing mistakes in forex, you will become quite confident about your forex trading.

Select a course that focuses on both technical and fundamental analysis of forex trading. Add to this, while pursuing a forex training program, make sure you have understood the concept of money management in forex. Money management helps to increase your profit and limit your losses. You should also know how to handle the psychological barriers which affect the forex trading decisions to a great extent.

Except the aforesaid, choose a training course on forex which is dedicated to install the habit of success in every trader, who is going to enthrall the forex. Habit of success may include the ability to understand the discipline, taking responsibilities, being unwearied and committed towards task etc.

Before trading in forex, considering a forex training that features the above may help you to gain substantial profit in forex. With the advancement of World Wide Web, you could know a lot about forex, forex trading and forex training courses. Choose the right course, ask yourself whether its au fait and address imperative particulars about forex. A well trained trader has the potential to fetch profit in forex.

Forex Trading Secrets Exposed – 3 Lessons From Professional Forex Traders on Forex Trading

Almost 90% of the part time traders that I know of want to become full time forex traders in the near future. And they hope to be professional traders one day. That is the dream for most forex traders. What about you? In order to survive in the forex trading world and make lots of money from the forex market consistently, being a normal forex trader is not good enough – you’ll need to become a professional forex trader. So just what are the secrets that professional forex traders have that enable them to make lots of money trading forex? I once had a conversation with a friend of mine, who is a professional trader. He shared with me the 3 secrets that make professional traders like him very rich: Secret #1 – Professional traders are not geniuses- they simply follow a simple forex trading system You see it correctly, they are not any smarter than you nor do they possess of any god-like foresight in forex trading. I dare to say this because I know some professional forex traders who seem to know nothing in this world and clumsy in doing other stuffs but can do extremely well in forex trading. Why is that so? It’s simply because they have a successful forex trading system which gives them good forex trading signals. It helps them trade consistently. What they have to do is to repeat the consistency just by following the trading system. That’s about all. And let me tell you a little more secret, professional traders use simple forex trading systems instead complicated, as what most people thought. Secret #2 – Learn to work smart, not hard Do you think that you should learn how to trade forex the hard way and gain all the knowledge before you can be successful? Do you think you can master the forex market if you combine all the strategies taught by every forex trading experts? If your answer is yes, you are wrong. In other businesses, you may get rewarded for all the efforts and time you have put into. But in forex trading, it’s the right forex trading tutorials and education that count and you are rewarded for being accurate and not so much for the effort you put in. You will be surprised to know that successful traders only follow a winning trading system blindly to build up their trading capital. Secret #3 – They possess determination, discipline, money management and mindset for success My professional forex trader friend once told me that he would leave everything aside just to concentrate on his forex trading. It’s his determination to succeed that made him overcome small losses and steep learning curves that he experienced in the beginning. He told me the problem with most traders is that they are too eager to trade and make money fast from the forex market. You need to have discipline to follow the rules of your forex trading system. Huge capital gains in forex are piled up over years and not days, there is no shortcut to riches. He manages his money so well that even 2 or 3 losses in a row will not affect his trading capital much. 1% or even 0. 5% of his capital margin per trade is what he is only willing to risk. Not everyone can be a professional trader in a short period of time as you need huge capital, but anyone can become successful in forex trading if you learn how to trade forex the professional way.

Forex Secrets. Delusion No1. Forex Currency Rate and Economic Factors Impact on Exchange Rate

The delusion conceptually propounds that intraweek and intraday FOREX currency quotes movement is governed by either improvement or by deterioration of the state’s economic situation. But in reality, even in case the actual Forex news are superior to the estimated one, the FOREX quotes up/down movement is of 50/50 probability.

This statement is thoroughly important. Once the job of Forex trader is gambling on FOREX exchange rates differential (FOREX pairs up/down movement), the following is to be realized to obtain faultless profit:

FOREX pairs pricing mechanism (say at point X where you are completing the market analysis)

Factors imparting growth/decline to FOREX rates (up/down from point X).

Thus, having understood the FOREX ratesfactors effective at the extra-exchange (book-maker) FOREX market and the given currency motive factors, a trader must possess distinct knowledge of whether to buy or to sell the given currency pair.

So, what are these factors?

FOREX student suggest unambiguous interpretation of factors responsible for the price formation and the fluctuations there of:

Forex rate constitutes a demand-supply balance for a given goods (currency).

Any violation of this balance, (for instance, in case where the estimated news is in disagreement with the issued official one), results in the FOREX rates reciprocation in chase of a new demand-supply balance. Poor demand brings about decline in a certain currency rate, with a high demand leading to the growth of the latter. The situation continues as long as the currency buy/sell demand comes to balance at another level or at another point.

Referring to the B. Williams (“Trading Chaos 2” Chapter 1 “The market is what you are thinking of it”):

Each world market is dedicated to distribute or share limited amount of something… among those desirous to obtain it most of all. The market affects it by way of finding out and identifying the exact price? Underlying the buyer’/sellers’ power absolute equilibrium point.

The above point is readily established by stock, futures, bonds, FOREX and options markets, be it either via an open auction or by virtue of a computerized facility. Markets spot this point prior to any misbalance being detectable by You or by me or even by traders at the exchange floor.

With this scenario holding true – and it really does – we are in position to jump at certain simple yet important conclusions as regards the information being circulated through the market and enjoying doubtless acceptance”.

Thomas Demark was more laconic in “Technical analysis – an emerging science”:

“Price movement is governed by demand and supply. Should demand exceed supply, there’s a price rally and if visa versa, there’s a price decline. All economists do share these underlying principles”.

Hence, the role of fundamental analysis for FOREX market is readily apparent.

In scholar fiction one will discover roughly the following explanation, persistently wandering from book to book, from site to site and suggesting attaining successful trading at FOREX market by way of scrutinizing the country’s economic fundamental data, viz. by tracking the factors reflective of the country’s economy condition as below:

State economy condition dynamics indicators (GDP, trade & payments balance, current account, industrial production, etc. It is knowledge, that the higher the above indicators – the faster the economic and the currency price growth);

Stock indices, via average arithmetic index of the country’s securities market condition and dynamics. E. g. : 0. 3% daily DJI growth in the USA means that this certain day the shares of 30 leading US companies, being pictured by DJU, went 0. 3% more expensive. By similarity, DAX30 is the major German index, incorporating the price of shares of the country’s 30 leading companies.

The country’s interest rate, since the higher the rate, the greater number of investors is eager to invest into the country’s economy and hence into national currency strength.

Rate of inflation (the higher the rate, the quicker the National Bank will hike the interest rate). With this assumption, the CPI constitutes a key factor.

Money supply growth in domestic market, which fact brings about the inflation, leading to the interest rate hike.

The country’s gold and currency reserve assets.

Variation dynamics correlation of: balances of payment, trade balance, state budget, gross domestic product (GDP), etc.

Trade and industry dynamics (industrial production, industrial orders, DGO, capacity utilization, retail sales, etc. )

Construction statistics (construction spending, new home sales, housing under construction, building permits, etc. )

Labor statistics (unemployment rate, new jobs, etc. )

Society investigations (consumer confidence, consumer sentiment, purchase managers and service managers sentiment, etc. )

To be considered additionally are the country’s political stability and tranquility (clearly, any political, natural and other cataclysms are sure to turn investors nervous making them withdraw the investments from the country, thus weakening its national currency). And with the currency being the national economy derivative, changes in economic data will inevitably result in the above currency rate movement.

Conclusions:

Progress in economy results in the currency exchange rate rally.

Decrease in economic indicators leads to the national currency rate decline.

To sum it up, critical economic and political news (whose calendar is issued in advance and is familiar to any trader) constitute a standing factor giving rise to misbalance and causing the currency rate fluctuations.

In anticipation of important economic and political news FOREX pair crawl to the rates as inspired by the estimates (“rumored trade”), whereas upon actual news there occurs a pulse motion of FOREX pairs in accordance with the scheme below;

Forex rate grows if actual news are better than the estimated one;

Forex rate declines if actual news are worse than the estimated one.

ARE YOU FAMILIAR WITH THESE ABC BASICS OF STUDYING FOREX?

Do you accept that one can earn money by way of using these basics, known to every trader?

Then why, having absorbed these economic axioms, 90% of Forex traders in the world are losers rather than winners.

Where is the delusion of the above ABC truth, nudging traders towards losses? Let us perform sort of point-by-point analysis.

The currency exchange FOREX market is a book-makers one. It is gambling on rates difference without direct money delivery to the exchange market, except for hedging of traders’ funds by Forex brokers, via buy-sell difference especially during strong trends). Then, www. forexite. com reads: “Trading is performed without actual currencies supply, which fact cuts overheads and enables Forexite to go long and short on the currency” http://www. forexite. com/forexite_advantages/forex_advantages. html.

Comment: Have you ever met any book-makers;

o whose logics was coincident with that of THEIR clients (traders),

o whose stakes were being made in accordance with THEIR technical analysts forecasts, economic laws and common sense?

And what extent of doubt and skepticism should be attached to THEIR free “recommendations”, “advice”, “surveys” and “forecasts”, laid out at THEIR sites through THEIR analysts?

As a regular result, over 90% of the world traders are still loosing their deposits at FOREX each time they follow Thomas Demark stereotype that “All the economists share these underlying principles”.

Comment No. 1. In as much as the above underlying principles are 90% contradictory to practice, it gives rise to the following question. Might these “underlying principles, shared by all economists including Thomas Demark” have possibly turned into dogma, alien to life and practice?

Comment No. 2. What should a trader lean on: practice or dogma even if supported by great names, provided that the trader is purported at earning money?

FOREX analysts issuing their daily bulky market reviews are not FOREX traders in the overwhelming majority (see detailed discussion below). And on bringing together pairs 1, 2 and 3 there appears certain regularity.

Please, think over A. Elder words, that: “FOREX rates and the fundamental analysis are tied together with a mile-long rope. The fundamental analysis is ultimately decisive. But anything is likely to happen prior to this eventuality”. See http://forum. alpari-idc. ru/viewtopic. php?p=233365&sid=a15db5e24b0eec0a8cf725e2c5cac859).

Another, yet no less renowned trader and analyst, Bill Williams underlines the same mental regularity of an experienced professional trader (level 3 of his trader’s skill rating as per “Trading Chaos 2”): “On attaining level 3 you emerge as a self-provided pro trader. You are always familiar with the market’s basic, usually invisible structure. You no longer need to refer to others’ opinions. You needn’t read “Wall Street Journal”, watch market-oriented TV programs, and subscribe to information bulletins, waste money on information channels”.

Comment: Logically, there is a counter-implication, that if You are eager to become a successful trader, You are to restrict the influence of various surveys and recommendations on yourself even in case they originate from the world famous “Wall Street Journal”, to say nothing of crude gurus in analyst skins who use to know ahead of time where currencies will go.

Forex news is a scheduled issue of fundamental data, which as a rule impairs FOREX rates a sharp pulse of motion. But then, why the currency rates movement vector is only 50% coincident with the ABC truism logics as to where the rate should rush in case of actual news being much better or worse than the estimate. And, please, make an attempt to answer the following question, stirring for every trader: why with the new being worse than expected (say, on US economy), the USD currency would initially fall by 40 pips (news work-off) but in 5 to 10 minutes it would swivel back and would display a 200-point rally, with no account to either the issued news or to common sense.

Below are some examples:

Fig. 1. GBPUSD chart as of April 1, 2005 after the news, positive for the GBP and negative for the US economy.

(Picture you can see on author site )

In March the CIPS manufacturing index amounted to 52. 0 (with the previous data revised from 51. 8 to 51. 6). Oil price in NYC has grown by USD 2. 40 up to USD57. 70 per bbl (new record of the latest 21 years). Non-farm payrolls in the USA was minimum since last July (previous data revised towards lower values). There has been a decline in the Michigan sentiment index to 92. 6 (median estimate was 92. 9, with 92. 9 previously).

All the US indices faced a fall down. DJI at NYSE has fallen by 99. 46 pips (-0. 95%) towards closing at 10404. 30. NASDAQ declined by 14. 42 pips (-0. 72%) to 1984. 81. S&P500 slipped by 7. 67 pips (-0. 65%) to 1172. 92. 30-yr US Bonds yielded 4. 729 (0. 037 lower as compared to the previous close). By contrary, FTSE100 has grown by 19. 60 pips (+0. 40%) to 4914. 00.

Now, the question is to certified economists: what will happen to the GBPUSD within one day or even several hours upon publication of these data? You are right, USD should not simply fall down, it should collapse. Powerfully, swiftly. Well, well…

And this time, the same question to experienced traders. By FOREX news headlines You might have guessed that the events are taking place at the Friday American session. Correct. Initially, anyway, the GBPUSD chart will go up by 100 pips (news wok-off), followed by a pullback. Then Forex chart starts a new rally.

It is now to be tracked whether the GBP will breach the latest rally high or not. If affirmative, it will rush up by approximately 160 pips (Elliott wave 1 was 100 pips, while EW 3 is 60% longer). But if the high is not breached? The GBP currency quote will in no way come to a standstill, moreover on Friday afternoon. Hence, – down, to the starting point! And, if breached, similar situation takes shape but the counting is performed in a “down” direction (EW1, being the same 100 pips plus 187 pips from 1. 8826 to 1. 8759 being EW 3).

The FOREX day trading tactics will be given scrutiny in a separate chapter. A still separate chapter will be dedicated to Friday trade at American session due to its inherent specifics and to strong seemingly inappropriate movement. The movement is, of course, appropriate. To say nothing of Friday. But it will be touched upon later.

Now, getting back to the currency chart. As apparent, the GBPUSD pair movement on Friday, April, 01, 2005 is in no way in conjunction with the US economy fundamental data. Each forex trader can provide from tens to hundreds of similar instances, where the news are of a certain vector, whereas, after a fraudulent rush along the news vector, a currency applies reverse thrust.

Thereafter, the next day, in daily currency surveys, certified economists are sure to explain all to us by way of inventing another undisguised nonsense, like: “in spite of certain data, traders decided that the currency has already worked-off this side”. But! How could this occur on Apr, 01, 2005, provided that the currency has been staying flat in a narrow range in the course of the whole of the European session?

Otherwise, another explanation may emerge, that forex traders were expecting still more inferior news on the US economy… But! By how much more inferior, if according to DJ, the US non-farm payrolls MA was equivalent to 180K, with actual being +110K, estimate being +225K and prior being +243K? And in what manner do these economists count up world traders: by capita, by countries or by the funds, lost by those, who continued staying long in a holy belief in renowned academic scholars postulate of FOREX rates being tied up to countries’ economy statistics.

I wonder if I’ll ever chance to witness legal procedures to be instituted against any of those famous scholars, so that no one would dare claim that fundamental data trigger rate spikes.

The same pertains to economists, writing about the way, hundreds of thousands traders throughout the globe have conspired to conclude that it is time to reverse the trends with absolutely no grounds. Is it really feasible?

Such reading-matter is, but hammering a single question into one’s head: is it lie or is it stupidity of those cooking daily reports for taking traders for a ride, fooling them up and keeping them from the truth, which might be of great avail to them in daily trading. Traders are not a decisive factor, thus rates movement is in no way dependent on their will. Practically in no way.

Wanna check? Negotiate with tens of traders of the trading floor and arrange for a simultaneous entry long on some exotic FOREX pair. In so doing, try to push up either the NZDHKD, or the NZDCAD, or the HKDCAD. No need? I think so. You’ll certainly suffer failure with the above, to say nothing of the EUR, GBP, CHF.

Another example:

Fig. 2. GBPUSD movement as of May 13, 2005.

(Picture you can see on author site )

This is an M15 chart of the American session, where the USD pair has grown by over 100 pips from 1. 8583 to 1. 8481 against the news, negative for the US economy:

Most indices have dropped down: DJI at NYSE – by 49. 36 pips (-0. 48%) to close at 10140. 12; S&P500 – by 5. 31 pips (-0. 46%) to 1154. 05. NASDAQ has grown by 12. 92 pips (+0. 66%) to1976. 80. 30yr US Bonds yielded 4. 484 (0. 047 drop from previous close)

There is a fall in Michigan sentiment index. In May UMich was 85. 3 with med est 90. 0 and prior 87. 7. So it was worse than the estimate, reaching the low since March, 2003. The index decline was being observed for the fifth month.

The April US export price index was +0. 6% with prior of +0. 7%.

Below are other similar examples of that same day.

Fig. 3. EURUSD chart as of May 13, 2005.

(Picture you can see on author site )

Hundreds of examples may be offered, where the Forex news vector is opposite to that of the currency movement. Practically, actual news may happen to be superior or inferior to the estimate. FOREX quotes up/down movement is also of 50/50 probability irrespective of the above.

Why does it happen and what is the way for a trader to pinpoint entries and exits? This is going to be discussed in ensuing chapters of this book and in the Masterforex-V Trading Academy proceedings.

Full text of this article and pictures of examples http://www. masterforex-v. su/

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